Festive foresight; predicting the creative output this Christmas

Making a great Christmas campaign is always a challenge, but usually one that agencies look forward to. 

It's an opportunity to flex their creative muscles in the service of the brand, and to vie with each other to capture the imagination of the nation. Striking the perfect balance between magic and salesmanship is always tricky, and every year there are hits and misses. This year that balance will be much, much harder to achieve. As many industry sectors face existential crises, and much of the population fears for its health and its livelihood, the only thing we can be sure of is that the festive season will not mean business as usual. 

This Christmas will be a huge test for brands and agencies looking to creatively navigate exceptionally difficult circumstances.

How do we plan in the face of so much uncertainty? How do we promote our brands to an audience that has so many more important things to worry about? This Christmas will be a huge test for brands and agencies looking to creatively navigate exceptionally difficult circumstances. So, what might this year’s crop look like?

Using shared experience 

For the last decade, retailers have been the dominant players in the Christmas creative battle, weaving emotive stories of friendship and sharing into high profile campaigns that have become hotly anticipated cultural events. But, 12 years ago, when the UK last faced severe economic downturn, we saw value for money put squarely at the heart of many brand campaigns. This year, the festive season is once again likely to see lots of value driven communication as beleaguered advertisers fight for a share of what is predicted to be lower consumer spending than last year.  To balance the ‘Great value’ messaging, I suspect that brands will focus on touching our heartstrings and reminding us of the enduring importance of friendship and family at Christmas.

Bittersweet stories of families and friends, connected though apart, could resonate with an audience that is tired and emotional and missing the presence of loved ones.

Given that Covid restrictions will likely result in smaller family gatherings (supermarkets have already begun downsizing everything from desserts to turkeys in anticipation) there will be added poignancy in advertising that celebrates the power of togetherness, since it will inevitably also highlight the emotional challenges of separation this Christmas. I expect to see many shots of people connecting and communicating through screens and video. Tools like Zoom will play a starring role as the portals connecting one Christmas dinner to another; grandparents to grandchildren opening presents; parents to grown up children seeking advice on cooking turkey.

And, if executed well, bittersweet stories of families and friends, connected though apart, could resonate with an audience that is tired and emotional and missing the presence of loved ones.But, the danger in reflecting people’s lives back at them (apart, of course, from your campaign merging seamlessly with lots of other campaigns), is that this year more than ever, there is only so much reality we can bear.

Above: John Lewis's 2020 Christmas spot featured an excitable dragon. Will advertising's Christmas cultural moment capture hearts this year?

Tapping into memory

I think that the advertisers who will perform most strongly this year will be those who offer us a route back to simpler, happier times. I don't necessarily mean advertising with a sense of nostalgia (though for people experiencing anxiety and trauma the past can be a comforting place), I mean communication that taps into the joy and wonder with which we all viewed Christmas as children. Childhood, for most of us, meant greater security and fewer worries, and Christmas was a season of magic and unadulterated happiness. Communication that cues those positive memories will be particularly welcome this year as a source of relief and escape, and brands that successfully associate themselves with such positive emotions will benefit.

Animated characters, fairy tale stories of heroes and villains and humorous narratives invite us to bypass our adult brains and re-enter the more optimistic world of childhood.

Historically, John Lewis has used this approach extremely well. Whether through Excitable Edgar [above], Monty the Penguin, or The Bear and the Hare, these highly effective campaigns have addressed themes of friendship and community through the vehicle of childhood fantasy, and appealed to the child in all of us with exquisite animation and catchy, emotive music.